Posts Tagged ‘survivalism’

Prepared for what?

October 26, 2008

How do we prepare? What do we prepare for?

I think the probability of a shoot em out, shoot em up, kind of SHTF scenario unlikely to occur. That doesn’t mean that it won’t. It just means that I don’t see the need to have three AR platforms or a .50 BMG. For most of us the firearms that we already have will be adequate.

Firearms are fun. Hell, I love them and spending an hour or two at the range is a great way to spend some time. But really, what do we need – a 22 rifle, a shotgun, a center fire rifle and maybe one or two handguns. I leave the house with a handgun just about every day. When I think of all the events that would have to occur to make it SOP for me to leave the house with a rifle every day, that I don’t see happening. Am I worried about hordes of zombies running loose on the streets? Not really. Do I anticipate having to shoot someone from 200 or 300 yards? Probably not. I mean what kind of self-defense do you have to extract from 250 yards away. Shooting someone at 200 yards sounds more like murder then self defense. Could I be wrong? I am more frequently than I like to admit.

Keeping all of the above in mind then the question is how to prepare. I like to think of various events that may occur and assign probabilities to each. Based upon the risk of occurrence, the danger from the event, the difficulty/expense in preparing and the risk of being unprepared, one can come up with a system to prepare. For ease of explanation let’s look at a simple matrix.

Likelihood of event occurring

Highly unlikely

Unlikely

Possible

Likely

Highly likely

Easy to prepare

More difficult

Neutral

Difficult to prepare

Very difficult

So we have to be prepared for the things that are easy to prepare for if they may occur. On the other hand we have to prepare for events that are likely to occur even if they are difficult to prepare for. If something is unlikely to occur and is difficult to prepare for then don’t waste your time. What’s in between is left to the discretion of each of us and each of our relative resources.

Suffice to say I place a lot more importance on food and water than I do firearms.

More particulars to follow.

First Post

October 25, 2008

Welcome to Abraham’s Blog. This is my first post. It will take me a while to figure out the “dashboard.”  Have patience.  Learn to be a better you and learn to have patience.

I plan on writing about freedom, liberty, economics, business, the Constitution, current events, survival and preparation for the hard times that are coming. Unlike most people who have affiliations with a political party, I call them the way I see them. Sorry if you don’t like the truth. Sorry if the truth or the facts conflict with your preconceived notions of how the world operates.

This morning I’d like to talk about the economy. Things are going down and going down fast. It’s already a done deal that things are going to collapse and that in a few years our country will be a much different place then it was just a few years ago. We may not recognize the United States of our future as resembling anything close to the republic that we grew up in.

I personally expect the market to go down a bit more. Maybe it will be 500 points maybe it will be two or three thousand points. It’s immaterial at this point because the match has already been touched to the tinder and all that’s left is for the clapping flames of tinder to catch the larger logs of our economy as the whole thing is consumed in a funeral pyre of enormous flames and the wisps of our economic futures float freely up to the economic Valhalla of lost empires.

What really pisses me off is when I hear the talking heads on CNBC speak about how the crisis in the financial markets will spread to the “real economy.” Ergo Wall Street isn’t the real economy and where we all live is. Got that? Before we move on absorb that.

What does that say about the financial markets, Wall Street, the DOW, NASDAQ, investments, hedges, stocks, bonds, futures and derivatives aren’t part of the real economy? That really should be a kick to the balls if you have any money in the markets. Hey you with 401k’s and 403b’s wake up; that 2, 3, 4 or 5% of your salary that you defer every pay period is being siphoned off to something that isn’t “real.” That’s the big shots definition, not mine. We stopped contributing to our retirement plans earlier this year. I mean it was crazy to take $100 out of our paychecks and then get a statement that we lost $1,000. You are better off buying food and ammo. Those two items offer a greater return YTD then the market has offered.

Deflation or inflation who is to know what will happen. I say both. Deflation followed by inflation. At some point the Trillions floated by the Bush Administration in the past two months will come back as inflationary pressures. I just don’t see any way around. Thanks to Bush there is more money chasing what seems to be fewer goods. Isn’t that the definition of inflation? We just haven’t seen the worst of it yet.

Things are bound to get much worse before they get better. Don’t get me wrong the market will go up, the market will go down, but the trend for the economy for the next 5-10 years is down.

That’s enough for my first post. Keep preparing. More to follow.