Posts Tagged ‘recession’

I expected…

October 27, 2008

The Market to go down more today. The last Monday in October has not been a kind time to our financial markets. I wouldn’t have been surprised to have seen it go down 1,000 points today.  The pressure is still there though.

I still expect the general economy to tank like most people don’t expect. Kind of like a storm blowing on the horizon, most folks have their backs turned towards it, most folks don’t care, most folks wouldn’t know it even if it blew right through their car.

Most folks don’t pay attention to their surroundings. One of the most important rules of survival is to be aware of your surroundings. A survival rule almost as important is to accept the world as its presents itself to you and not to see the world as you want it to be. In other words, if you think you may be lost, admit that you are lost then figure out what to do. Stumbling around in the dark saying to yourself, “Yeah, I know where I am; our trail is right up ahead” even when you know in the pit of your stomach that your trail isn’t right up ahead is a sure way to deny reality and stumble further into the town of Lost.

But I digress, the economy is beyond saving. Something has to give. It may not be tomorrow, or the day after or next month or next year, but the depression, crash, breakdown or whatever can’t be stopped. All the actions of the Bush Administration will continue to have little to no effect, but continue to weigh down all of our futures like a heavy snow on power lines. Each additional bailout is just more slush piled upon the power lines for our economy. Today I heard one of the Administrations spokes animals float the idea of taxpayer funds being used to bailout private business, like the corner grocery and hardware store I guess. I’m against that too. Business should either be able to compete on its own, or fail in the marketplace. I need to add a caveat, I am in favor of citizen funds being used to help fund NEW business or NEW technology. I think it’s a good idea to invest in the future, to get something started, but once in motion business either needs to be able to propel itself or allowed to fail.

I don’t want to predict where there market fall may end. The speed of the collapse so far has surprised even me, and I’m a pessimist. Originally, I thought it would stop around 7,000-7,500. Now I’m not so sure.

The layoffs start in earnest Q109. Next time you are driving around look around and imagine 1/3 of furniture stores, cell phone stores, eye glass stores, auto dealers, mattress stores closed. All of the “mall-based” retailers are under pressure heretofore unknown. How many Abercrombies, Banana Republics, Gaps, Brookstones, Pacific Sunwears Apple stores, jewelry stores are going to close? I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that upwards of 1/3 of these retailers will also be closed within a few years.


First Post

October 25, 2008

Welcome to Abraham’s Blog. This is my first post. It will take me a while to figure out the “dashboard.”  Have patience.  Learn to be a better you and learn to have patience.

I plan on writing about freedom, liberty, economics, business, the Constitution, current events, survival and preparation for the hard times that are coming. Unlike most people who have affiliations with a political party, I call them the way I see them. Sorry if you don’t like the truth. Sorry if the truth or the facts conflict with your preconceived notions of how the world operates.

This morning I’d like to talk about the economy. Things are going down and going down fast. It’s already a done deal that things are going to collapse and that in a few years our country will be a much different place then it was just a few years ago. We may not recognize the United States of our future as resembling anything close to the republic that we grew up in.

I personally expect the market to go down a bit more. Maybe it will be 500 points maybe it will be two or three thousand points. It’s immaterial at this point because the match has already been touched to the tinder and all that’s left is for the clapping flames of tinder to catch the larger logs of our economy as the whole thing is consumed in a funeral pyre of enormous flames and the wisps of our economic futures float freely up to the economic Valhalla of lost empires.

What really pisses me off is when I hear the talking heads on CNBC speak about how the crisis in the financial markets will spread to the “real economy.” Ergo Wall Street isn’t the real economy and where we all live is. Got that? Before we move on absorb that.

What does that say about the financial markets, Wall Street, the DOW, NASDAQ, investments, hedges, stocks, bonds, futures and derivatives aren’t part of the real economy? That really should be a kick to the balls if you have any money in the markets. Hey you with 401k’s and 403b’s wake up; that 2, 3, 4 or 5% of your salary that you defer every pay period is being siphoned off to something that isn’t “real.” That’s the big shots definition, not mine. We stopped contributing to our retirement plans earlier this year. I mean it was crazy to take $100 out of our paychecks and then get a statement that we lost $1,000. You are better off buying food and ammo. Those two items offer a greater return YTD then the market has offered.

Deflation or inflation who is to know what will happen. I say both. Deflation followed by inflation. At some point the Trillions floated by the Bush Administration in the past two months will come back as inflationary pressures. I just don’t see any way around. Thanks to Bush there is more money chasing what seems to be fewer goods. Isn’t that the definition of inflation? We just haven’t seen the worst of it yet.

Things are bound to get much worse before they get better. Don’t get me wrong the market will go up, the market will go down, but the trend for the economy for the next 5-10 years is down.

That’s enough for my first post. Keep preparing. More to follow.