Worse than welfare


During the typical day I’ll check out the stock market a few times.  Okay, five or ten actually.  So yesterday the bankers, shysters and con men get all excited that more government slop is going to fill their troughs and the market goes up 200 points.  What does it say when the only positive news is more corporate welfare to bail out the same cheats that drove the economy off of the cliff.  All it does is reward bad behavior and poor decision making. I can’t imagine why the DOW isn’t at 4,000.  Where is my bailout!?!

Get used to it!

Get used to it!

Earnings are terrible and look to be worse for the forseeable future.  The only thing keeping the market afloat is the promise of more corporate welfare.

Then this morning new unemployment numbers come out.  More Americans are collecting unemployment now than anytime since they started keeping records in 1967.  That’s 4,800,000 people out of work.  But lo n’ behold upon closer reading you actually see, “The total released by the department doesn’t include about 1.7 million people receiving benefits under an extended unemployment compensation program authorized by Congress last summer. That means the total number of recipients is actually closer to 6.5 million people.” WTF!?!?

So for some fakakta reason the government doesn’t count people that receive extended benefits as receiving continued benefits.  1.7 divided by 4.8 = 35%.  So the number reported, even if you believe the numbers, is 35% under reported because the government doesn’t count those who receive extended benefits as “continuing to receive unemployment benefits.” Does that make sense?  I’m sure confused.

What’s real important that everyone will basically understand, except for the government, is that those 1,700,000 people who are receiving extended benefits (although they’re not counted as “continuing to receive unemployment benefits”) have been unemployed longest.  These are people who already ripped through their initial 26 weeks and now are going through extended bennies.  Then when they use up their seven weeks of extended bennies they fall off of the screen altogether.  Nice.  And believe me in this economy being unemployed for 6 or 8 months or a year is nothing.

The unemployment picture is much worse then they let on.  Ask around yourself.  You’ll get an answer.

Really ask around and then comment below what you come up with-

  • are you unemployed?
  • is someone living with you unemployed?
  • do you know anyone not living with you that is unemployed?

Then comment.

Then earlier this week I see this story, “National Association of Realtors: U.S. home sales rise, but prices plunge.”  So Lord knows you can’t believe the realtors because no matter what they want to make their commission.  With the realtors everything is just like CNBC, “BUY! BUY! BUY!”

So today another story comes out, “The Commerce Department said Thursday that new home sales fell 14.7 percent in December…This is an awful report…December’s sales pace was the lowest on records dating back to 1963.

How do you reconile the National Association of Realtors’ report with the Commerce Department’s report?  You don’t.

How many bottoms have been called by the talking heads on cable?

Does anyone believe tha that the real unemployment rate is 7.6% as reported by the government?  I’m looking for more work.  Many of my firends are looking for more work.  I know gobs of people who have been laid off in the past year.  I’m 45 and I never remember it being like this.  You?

I trust the Shadow Stats site much more than the official government numbers.  This is what it really looks like.  What’s important to recognize here is the increasing growth rate.

And the CEO of Ford thinks that we’re close to a bottom in car sales and he now expects a slow recovery.  Is he on crack?   Unemployed people don’t buy cars.  People worrying about getting laid off don’t buy cars.  And there are only two types of Americans today those that got laid off and those worried about getting laid off.  Period! Why does he still have a job?

It all a confidence game.

We all know what’s going on and that’s why we all look at websites and blogs like this one and many others.

My expectations – more layoffs, more bank failures, the US$ will be devalued or we will have one world currency with the expressed goal of making international trade easier and at some point we will have massive inflation.

You wanna know something I wish I bought more ammo.  Not that I’m done.  You will get a better ROI from buying ammo, guns, canned goods, food, batteries, supplies, tools, first aid equipment, water filters, cord wood, seeds or anything else than putting it into a bank, bond or equities.  I know PMs are kind of expensive now, but I think (IMHO) that there is much more room for them to go up then down.  Especially if you plan on holding for a few years.

I also expect at some point that getting items from overseas will be very difficult.

War is often seen as the answer by economies and governments in trouble.  Personally, I think this is shaping up to be much worse then Great Depression v.1.

Don’t be fooled.  You know as well as I do that the collapse is accelerating.  Act accordingly.

Aarghghghghg!!  Sorry for the rambling rage.

You know by now I find peace in nature.

iceThis is a big old oak totally covered in ice from yester’s storm.  No matter what happens to any of us the world will keep on spinning.

ice2This must be the northside of this tree.  It’s all mossy, plus there is a a little mushroom growing right up through the bark.  Pretty cool, huh?  This teeny, tiny mushroom is a survivor.


6 Responses to “Worse than welfare”

  1. Mike Says:

    “Why does he still have a job?”

    It is a confidence game, but not just in the way you say it. It’s all about consumer and investor confidence. Everyone knows that the best case is that things will get worse before they get better. However, if they ADMIT that publicly things will get even worse. The talking heads know that if they say things will get worse, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy and make things worse than they would be if they said nothing. Their only hope is to convince enough people that we have better times ahead, that the better times will be built by renewed investment and spending.

    Personally I say cut the corporate welfare and let the whole system get sucked down into the horrible vacuum it created. After the system implodes, we can build a better one based on sanity and reality, rather than gullibility and greed.

  2. Jaye Says:

    are you unemployed? Yes
    is someone living with you unemployed? No, I live alone.
    do you know anyone not living with you that is unemployed? Not yet.

    I check the stock market every hour during the work day. I don’t have much money in it (just a small IRA and a small portion of my small 401(k). When I wake up during the night and then in the morning, I’m afraid. I wonder what the government has done during the night while I fitfully sleep. I’m 44, the mid-80′ were bad, but I was younger and felt more invincible. Now I know I’m screwed.

    What are “PMs”?

    Are you working? I love seeing the pictures you post…I look forward to reading your blog when I get home from work because I usually learn something new, whether it’s about what kind of flashlight would be best for me or more facts about the world. Thanks, whoever you are!

  3. Jaye Says:

    are you unemployed. No.

  4. Abraham Says:

    PMs = precious metals. Thanks for the kind comments too. Not working as much as I’d like. I’m looking for more work and/or more business, just more.

  5. Anonymous Says:

    Are you unemployed? Yes, but starting my own business (in a fairly recession proof field)
    Is anyone you are living with unemployed? No, my Fiancée is working at a job she hates in order to make ends meet. She is however working outside of her field and miserable because of it.
    Do you know anyone who doesn’t live with you who is unemployed? Yes, quite a few people in fact.
    Now, as to the stats… there are also a great number of people who no longer receive unemployment because it ran out and they didn’t qualify for the extended benefits/they have been unemployed longer than the benefits account for. I believe that if you take all of the people who could be working that aren’t doing so right now, the total unemployment is around 12 – 15 %… way worse than the government stats and worse than even the most pessimistic stats. Those numbers are using the same metrics that were used in the great depression, as opposed to the modern metrics.
    Scared yet?

  6. TR Says:

    I am still working, but there have been layoffs. My wife was layed off the day after Thanksgiving, lots of apps, no one hiring. Her best friends husband is not working and has not been for a while. Only possitive is that more guns are being sold in the paper at good prices, with the way things are going people are going to wish they had not traded for those for the little green pieces of paper. Got rid of the 401Que¿ years ago and invested in better things (yes PM’s is the main one I invested in). We are not doing to bad, better than many. Remember instead of bying DVD’s, new HDTV, etc… a book is cheep, and a walk in the woods costs nothing and either is worth so much more.

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