I expected…

by

The Market to go down more today. The last Monday in October has not been a kind time to our financial markets. I wouldn’t have been surprised to have seen it go down 1,000 points today.  The pressure is still there though.

I still expect the general economy to tank like most people don’t expect. Kind of like a storm blowing on the horizon, most folks have their backs turned towards it, most folks don’t care, most folks wouldn’t know it even if it blew right through their car.

Most folks don’t pay attention to their surroundings. One of the most important rules of survival is to be aware of your surroundings. A survival rule almost as important is to accept the world as its presents itself to you and not to see the world as you want it to be. In other words, if you think you may be lost, admit that you are lost then figure out what to do. Stumbling around in the dark saying to yourself, “Yeah, I know where I am; our trail is right up ahead” even when you know in the pit of your stomach that your trail isn’t right up ahead is a sure way to deny reality and stumble further into the town of Lost.

But I digress, the economy is beyond saving. Something has to give. It may not be tomorrow, or the day after or next month or next year, but the depression, crash, breakdown or whatever can’t be stopped. All the actions of the Bush Administration will continue to have little to no effect, but continue to weigh down all of our futures like a heavy snow on power lines. Each additional bailout is just more slush piled upon the power lines for our economy. Today I heard one of the Administrations spokes animals float the idea of taxpayer funds being used to bailout private business, like the corner grocery and hardware store I guess. I’m against that too. Business should either be able to compete on its own, or fail in the marketplace. I need to add a caveat, I am in favor of citizen funds being used to help fund NEW business or NEW technology. I think it’s a good idea to invest in the future, to get something started, but once in motion business either needs to be able to propel itself or allowed to fail.

I don’t want to predict where there market fall may end. The speed of the collapse so far has surprised even me, and I’m a pessimist. Originally, I thought it would stop around 7,000-7,500. Now I’m not so sure.

The layoffs start in earnest Q109. Next time you are driving around look around and imagine 1/3 of furniture stores, cell phone stores, eye glass stores, auto dealers, mattress stores closed. All of the “mall-based” retailers are under pressure heretofore unknown. How many Abercrombies, Banana Republics, Gaps, Brookstones, Pacific Sunwears Apple stores, jewelry stores are going to close? I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that upwards of 1/3 of these retailers will also be closed within a few years.

A-out.

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